Event

Harley Balzer, Georgetown University. 

Title: The China-Russia Reversal: Why is China growing faster economically and more stable politically?

Abstract: At the time that Mao died in 1976, most analysts would have bet that Russia, not China, was poised to become a major commercial and industrial power in the 21st Century. China had copied many of its institutions from the Soviet Union, and lagged far behind on all the indices of modernization - including industrialization, urbanization, literacy, and manufacturing.  Explaining why China, not Russia, is now competing with America as a major world power is among the most important geopolitical puzzles of our time. China has embraced globalization more fully and developed trade and manufacturing, exporting increasingly higher-value-added goods.  Russia has gone through a more fundamental regime change but its economy is not as integrated, nor performing consistently well.  The explanation for this surprising outcome is not so much in terms of resources, manpower and and infrastructure, but in the attitudes of the key economic elites in the two countries.  Specifically, Chinese elites viewing globalization as their best opportunity to catch up and overtake developed nations, while Russian elites are far more guarded in their acceptance of integration. The differences are illustrated by comparing leading sectors, regional development, human capital, and corruption.

Lunch will be served.