Ian Lustick

Ian Lustick

Professor EmeritusBess W. Heyman Chair, Emeritus


Ronald O. Perelman Center for Political Science and Economics, Room 326


Dr. Lustick holds the Bess W. Heyman Chair in the Political Science Department of the University of Pennsylvania.  He teaches Middle Eastern politics, comparative politics, and computer modeling. He is a recipient of awards from the Carnegie Corporation, the National Science Foundation, the National Endowment for the Humanities, and the Social Sciences Research Council.  Before coming to Penn he taught for fifteen years at Dartmouth College and worked for one year in the Department of State. His present research focuses on the implications of the disappearance of the option of a negotiated “two-state solution” to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and techniques of counterfactual forecasting. He is a past president of the Politics and History Section of the American Political Science Association and of the Association for Israel Studies, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.  Among his books are Arabs in the Jewish State (1980); For the Land and the Lord (1988, 1994); Unsettled States, Disputed Lands (1993); Trapped in the War on Terror (2006); and Paradigm Lost (2019).


 BOOK:  Paradigm Lost:  From Two-State Solution to One-State Reality



PS-I toolkit, Beta. For program, documentation, and source code: http://ps-i.sourceforge.net/

The platform can also be found on the PS-I Agent-Based Simulation Toolkit website (Software developed in collaboration with Dr. Vladimir Dergachev).

Agent-Based Modeling - Papers and Publications (1998-2004); Papers and Publications (2010-2017)

“Opinion Articles and Public Appearances” 


Interview "How the War in Gaza Ends," An interview/podcast with Vox, Today Explained, January 18, 2024.

Article: History Tells Us How the Israel-Hamas War Will EndTime Magazine, Made by History, January 10, 2024.

Interview, October 23, 2023, Podcast History As It Happens:  "1948" (The Israel-Hamas War in Historical Context)

Article: "Vengeance Is Not a Policy," FP, October 13, 2023.

Article: "What America's Civil War Can Teach Us About Israel's," FP, March 26, 2023.

Interview: Heroes and Patriots, April 6, 2023, John Sakowicz and Mary Massey. Israel's massive protests and the One-State Reality.

Presentation: “Israel after Netanyahu:  Anchored in a One-State Reality,” SMA Presentation, July 22, 2021.

Presentation: “The Perils of Sticky Rhetoric,” SMA Presentation and Discussion, April 14, 2022.

Working Paper: "Israel and BDS: Reciprocal Mobilization, Strategy, Competition, and Wars of Position"

Article: “Israel after Netanyahu:  Anchored in a One-State Reality”

Speaker Session: “Israel after Netanyahu:  Anchored in a One-State Reality”

Article“Fieldwork and Emotion:  Three Stories”

Article"Why Does Annexation Look Like a Problem and Not an Opportunity?" Logos (2020) Vol. 19. no. 2.

ArticleThe One-State Reality and the Real Meaning of Annexation,” The Link, Vol. 53 (Summer 2020).

InterviewThe One-State Reality to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, Fair Observer, July 2020

Article: The One-State Reality: Reading the Trump-Kushner Plan as a Morbid Symptom, Arab World Geographer (Spring 2020) Vol. 23, no. 1.

Article: Israelis, Palestinians, and Americans: More Politics, Please, Less Process, Insight Turkey (Winter 2020)

Article: The Trump Administration Using Accusations of Anti-Semitism to Silence Criticism of IsraelForward, November 29, 2019

Article: Time for a Paradigm Shift in IsraelInformed Comment, October 29, 2019

Article: The Last Time a Jewish State Annexed Its Neighbors, It Disappeared for 2,000 Years Foreign Policy, September 15, 2019

Interview: "Worlds Apart: Escape from reality?" May 19, 2109.

Article: "Israel’s Massacre of Palestinian Civilians Should Spark Horror—and Action," The Nation, May 18, 2018. 

Interview: “After the U.S. Strikes Syria, What Next?” Recording of NPR "On Point" interview with Melissa Block, April 16, 2018. 

Interview: “Eyes on Syria,” Recording of NPR "On Point" interview with Emily Blunt, April 13, 2018. January 30, 2017. 

Lecture: “The Peace Process Carousel:  From Peacemaking to Pathology”, May 30, 2017.

Interview: "Protests, Confusion For Executive Order On Refugees," Recording of NPR "On Point" interview with Tom Ashbrook, January 30, 2017.

Lecture:  “The Two-State Solution as a Degenerative Research Program,” Lecture, Brown University, October 30, 2014. 

Debate:  "Two States or One:  The Future of Israelis and Palestinians,"  Ian Lustick, Jeremy Ben-Ami, Ahmad Khalidi, Yousef Munayyer, October 9, 2013.

Lecture: "Israel Needs a New Map," Transcript from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C. February 26, 2013.

Dr. Lustick's "Agent-Based Identity Repertoire Model" for ABIR-28: PS-I Agent-Based Simulation Toolkit website. Featured in Terror Games By Jeffrey Rothfeder Popular Science, March 2004 Volume 264 #3.

Office Hours
Office Hours:

University of California, Berkeley, Ph.D. 1976

University of California, Berkeley, M.A. 1972

Brandeis University, BA (1971)

Research Interests
  • Comparative Politics
  • International Politics
  • Agent-Based Modeling
  • Middle Eastern Politics
Courses Taught
  • Political Identities and Political Institutions (Graduate Seminar)
  • Hegemonic Analysis (Graduate Seminar)
  • Politics, Complexity, and Evolution (Undergraduate-Graduate Seminar)
  • International Relations of the Middle East: The Arab-Israeli Conflict (undergraduate)
  • International Relations of the Middle East: The Dynamics of Great Power Intervention (undergraduate)
  • Comparative Politics of the Middle East: Israel and Iran (undergraduate) 
  • Introduction to Comparative Politics (undergraduate)
Selected Publications

Selected Books

Selected Articles

Response from Jeffrey Kopstein / Response from Dan Michman et al / Response from Avinoam J. Patt / Response from Yael Zerubavel / Lustick response to comments


Selected Chapters in Edited Volumes

  • One-State Reality: Israel as the State that Rules the Lands and Populations Living Between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River, In Israel/Palestine:  Exploring a One-State Reality (POMEPS Studies 41:  July 2020)
  • "Thinking Counterfactually and with Discipline" in Interpretive Quantification, J. Samuel Barkin and Laura Sjoberg, ed. (Ann Arbor: University Michigan Press, 2017) pp. 145-173.
  • "Zionist Theories of Peace" in Israel and Its Palestinian Citizens, Nadim N. Rouhana, ed (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2017) pp. 39-72. (with Matthew Berkman) 
  • "Deploying Constructivism for the Analysis of Rare Events:  How Possible is the Emergence of 'Punjabistan'?" in Constructivist Theories of Ethnic Politics, Kanchan Chandra, ed. (Oxford:  Oxford University Press, 2012) pp. 422-451.
  • "Yerushalayim, al-Quds, and the Wizard of Oz: The Problem of Jerusalem after Camp David II and the Aqsa Intifada," in Jerusalem: Idea and Reality, Tamar Mayer and Suleiman A. Mourad, eds. London: Routledge, 2008. pp. 283-302.
  • "The War on Terror:  When the Response is the Catastrophe," in Emergency Management in Higher Education:  Current Practices and Conversations, Jessica A. Hubbard, ed.  Fairfax, VA:  The Public Entity Risk Institute, 2008. pp. 73-98. (Read this as a conference paper presented at the Emergency Management Higher Education Conference, Emergency Management Institute, June 4-7, 2007)
  • "Hegemony and the Riddle of Nationalism: The Dialectics of Political Identity in the Middle East" Ethnic Conflict and International Politics in the Middle East, Leonard Binder, ed. Gainsville, FL: University Press of Florida, 1999. pp.332-359. (Read this chapter as a working paper) (Read it as published in Logos, Summer 2002, Vol 1, #3.)

Council on Foreign Relations

Association for Israel Studies

American Political Science Association

Editorial Board, Palestine-Israel Review

CV (file)