Dr. Lustick holds the Bess W. Heyman Chair in the Political Science Department of the University of Pennsylvania. He teaches Middle Eastern politics, comparative politics, and computer modeling. He is a recipient of awards from the Carnegie Corporation, the National Science Foundation, the National Endowment for the Humanities, and the Social Sciences Research Council. Before coming to Penn he taught for fifteen years at Dartmouth College and worked for one year in the Department of State. His present research focuses on the implications of the disappearance of the option of a negotiated “two-state solution” to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and techniques of counterfactual forecasting. He is a past president of the Politics and History Section of the American Political Science Association and of the Association for Israel Studies, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Among his books are Arabs in the Jewish State (1980); For the Land and the Lord (1988, 1994); Unsettled States, Disputed Lands (1993); Trapped in the War on Terror (2006); and Paradigm Lost (2019).
PS-I toolkit, Beta. For program, documentation, and source code: http://ps-i.sourceforge.net/
The platform can also be found on the PS-I Agent-Based Simulation Toolkit website (Software developed in collaboration with Dr. Vladimir Dergachev).
“Opinion Articles and Public Appearances”
Interview, October 23, 2023, Podcast History As It Happens: "1948" (The Israel-Hamas War in Historical Context)
Article: "Vengeance Is Not a Policy," FP, October 13, 2023.
Article: "What America's Civil War Can Teach Us About Israel's," FP, March 26, 2023.
Interview: Heroes and Patriots, April 6, 2023, John Sakowicz and Mary Massey. Israel's massive protests and the One-State Reality.
Presentation: “Israel after Netanyahu: Anchored in a One-State Reality,” SMA Presentation, July 22, 2021.
Presentation: “The Perils of Sticky Rhetoric,” SMA Presentation and Discussion, April 14, 2022.
Speaker Session: “Israel after Netanyahu: Anchored in a One-State Reality”
Article: "Why Does Annexation Look Like a Problem and Not an Opportunity?" Logos (2020) Vol. 19. no. 2.
Article: “The One-State Reality and the Real Meaning of Annexation,” The Link, Vol. 53 (Summer 2020).
Interview: The One-State Reality to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, Fair Observer, July 2020
Article: The One-State Reality: Reading the Trump-Kushner Plan as a Morbid Symptom, Arab World Geographer (Spring 2020) Vol. 23, no. 1.
Article: Israelis, Palestinians, and Americans: More Politics, Please, Less Process, Insight Turkey (Winter 2020)
Article: The Trump Administration Using Accusations of Anti-Semitism to Silence Criticism of Israel, Forward, November 29, 2019
Article: Time for a Paradigm Shift in Israel, Informed Comment, October 29, 2019
Article: The Last Time a Jewish State Annexed Its Neighbors, It Disappeared for 2,000 Years Foreign Policy, September 15, 2019
Interview: "Worlds Apart: Escape from reality?" May 19, 2109.
Article: "Israel’s Massacre of Palestinian Civilians Should Spark Horror—and Action," The Nation, May 18, 2018.
Interview: “After the U.S. Strikes Syria, What Next?” Recording of NPR "On Point" interview with Melissa Block, April 16, 2018.
Interview: “Eyes on Syria,” Recording of NPR "On Point" interview with Emily Blunt, April 13, 2018. January 30, 2017.
Lecture: “The Peace Process Carousel: From Peacemaking to Pathology”, May 30, 2017.
Interview: "Protests, Confusion For Executive Order On Refugees," Recording of NPR "On Point" interview with Tom Ashbrook, January 30, 2017.
Lecture: “The Two-State Solution as a Degenerative Research Program,” Lecture, Brown University, October 30, 2014.
Debate: "Two States or One: The Future of Israelis and Palestinians," Ian Lustick, Jeremy Ben-Ami, Ahmad Khalidi, Yousef Munayyer, October 9, 2013.
Lecture: "Israel Needs a New Map," Transcript from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C. February 26, 2013.
Dr. Lustick's "Agent-Based Identity Repertoire Model" for ABIR-28: PS-I Agent-Based Simulation Toolkit website. Featured in Terror Games By Jeffrey Rothfeder Popular Science, March 2004 Volume 264 #3.
University of California, Berkeley, Ph.D. 1976
University of California, Berkeley, M.A. 1972
Brandeis University, BA (1971)
- Comparative Politics
- International Politics
- Agent-Based Modeling
- Middle Eastern Politics
- Political Identities and Political Institutions (Graduate Seminar)
- Hegemonic Analysis (Graduate Seminar)
- Politics, Complexity, and Evolution (Undergraduate-Graduate Seminar)
- International Relations of the Middle East: The Arab-Israeli Conflict (undergraduate)
- International Relations of the Middle East: The Dynamics of Great Power Intervention (undergraduate)
- Comparative Politics of the Middle East: Israel and Iran (undergraduate)
- Introduction to Comparative Politics (undergraduate)
- Paradigm Lost: From Two-State Solution to One-State Reality. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2019. Buy this book from the publisher.
- Trapped in the War on Terror. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2006. (Buy this book from the publisher)
- For the Land and the Lord: Jewish Fundamentalism in Israel. New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 1988. (Buy this book from Amazon)
- Unsettled States, Disputed lands: Britain and Ireland, France and Algeria, Israel and the West Bank-Gaza. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1993. (Buy this book from the publisher)
- State Building in British Ireland and French Algeria. Berkeley: University of California, 1985.
- "What and Where is Israel: Time for a Gestalt Shift," in The One State Reality: What Is Israel/Palestine? Michael Barnett, nathan J. Brown, Marc Lynch, and Shibley Telhami, eds. (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2023) pp. 33-50.
- Ian S. Lustick, "Annexation in right-wing Israeli discourse--The case of Ribonut," Frontiers in Political Science, September 20, 2022.
- Ian S. Lustick and Phillip E. Tetlock, “The Simulation Manifesto: The Limits of Brute-Force Empiricism in Geopolitical Forecasting,” Futures & Foresight (2021)
- Ian S. Lustick. "The Peace Process Carousel: The Israel Lobby and the Failure of American Diplomacy," Middle East Journal, Vol. 74, no. 2 (Summer 2020)
- “When do institutions suddenly Collapse? Zones of knowledge and the likelihood of political cascades,” Quantity and Quality (2019) (with Dan Miodownik)
- Ian S. Lustick, “The Red Thread of Israel’s ‘Demographic Problem,’” Middle East Policy, Vol. XXVI, no. 1 (Spring 2019) pp. 141-149.
- "The Balfour Declaration a Century Later: Accidentally Relevant" Middle East Policy Vol. XXIV, No.4, Winter 2017
- Ian Lustick, Miguel Garces, and Thomas McCauley, “An Agent-Based Model of Counterfactual Opportunities for Reducing Atrocities in Syria, 2011-2014,” Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, Series of Occasional Papers, No. 5 (August 2017)
- “Four Constructions of the Holocaust in Israeli Political Culture” Contemporary Jewry (April 2017) Vol. 37: 125–170.
- "Making Sense of the Nakba: Ari Shavit, Baruch Marzel, and Zionist Claims to Territory," Journal of Palestine Studies Vol. XLIV, No. 2, Winter 2015: 7-27.
- "Places vs. Spaces for Palestinians and Jews," Perspectives, Spring 2014.
- "Mah Shechashuv ze Ketzad Sofrim: Manipulatziot Statistiot Kepitaron le 'Ba'ayah Hademographi' shel Yisrael," HaMerchav HaTziburi, 8, Winter 2014.
- "What Counts is the Counting: Statistical Manipulation as a Solution to Israel’s 'Demographic Problem'" The Middle East Journal, Vol. 67, No. 2, Spring 2013.
- "Review of Party Competition: An Agent-Based Model." Perspectives on Politics, December 2012: 1026-1028.
- "America and the Regional Powers in a Transforming Middle East," with F. Gregory Gause, III. Middle East Policy. Vol XIX, No. 2, Summer 2012.
- "Institutional Rigidity and Evolutionary Theory: Trapped on a Local Maximum" Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History. 2 (2) 2011.
- Sergio DellaPergola, "When Scholarship Disturbs Narrative: Ian Lustick on Israel's Migration Balance," Israel Studies Review, Vol. 26, Is. 2, Winter 2011: 1-20. (A critical response to "Israel's Migration Balance: Demography, Politics, and Ideology.")
- Ian Lustick, "Leaving the Villa and Touching a Raw Nerve," Israel Studies Review, Vol. 26, Is. 2, Winter 2011: 21-27. (A response to DellaPergola's critique.)
- "Israel's Migration Balance: Demography, Politics, and Ideology," Israel Studies Review, Vol. 26, Is. 1, Summer 2011: 33-65.
- "Tetlock and Counterfactuals: Saving Methodological Ambition from Empirical Findings," Critical Review, 22: 4, 427-447.
- "Secession of the Center: A Virtual Probe of the Prospects for Punjabi Secessionism in Pakistan and the Secession of Punjabistan," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Vol 14, No. 1, January 2011.
- "Taking Evolution Seriously: Evolutionary Theory and Historical Institutionalism," Polity, January 2011.
- Review of books on Arabs in Israel by Yitzhak Reiter and Ra'anan Cohen, Middle East Journal, Winter 2010.
- "Abstractions, Ensembles, and Virtualizations: Simplicity and Complexity in Agent-Based Modeling." Comparative Politics, January 2009. Vol. 41, no. 2. (with Dan Miodownik)
- "Abandoning the Iron Wall: Israel and the Middle Eastern 'Muck,'" Middle East Policy, September 2008.
- "Israel's Future: The Time Factor. A Debate between Efraim Inbar and Ian S. Lustick," Israel Studies Forum, Volume 23, Issue 1, Summer 2008: 3-11.
- "Fractured Fairy Tale: The War on Terror and the Emperor's New Clothes," Homeland Security Affairs III, no. 1, February 2007.
- "Negotiating Truth: The Holocaust, Lehavdil, and al-Nakba," Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 60, no. 1 (Fall/Winter 2006) pp. 51-80.
- "Defining Violence: A Plausibility Probe Using Agent-Based Modeling," Paper prepared for LiCEP, Princeton University, May12-14, 2006
- "Secessionism in Multicultural States: Does Sharing Power Prevent or Encourage It?" Co-authored with Dan Miodownik and Roy J. Eidelson. American Political Science Review. Vol. 98, No. 2. May 2004, pp. 209-229.
- "Yerushalayim, al-Quds and the Wizard of Oz: Facing the Problem of Jerusalem after Camp David II and the al-Aqsa Intifada." The Journal of Israeli History, Vol.23, No.2, Autumn 2004, pp. 200–215.
- "Through Blood and Fire Shall Peace Arise." Tikkun, Vol. 17, No. 3., pp. 13-19.
- "Israel as a Non-Arab State: The Political Implications of Mass Immigration of Non-Jews," Middle East Journal, Vol. 53, No. 3, Special Issue on Israel (Summer, 1999), pp. 417-433.
- “Lijphart, Lakatos, and Consociationalism,” World Politics, Vol. 50 (October 1997) pp. 88-117.
- "The Absence of Middle Eastern Great Powers," International Organization, Vol. 51, No. 4 (Autumn, 1997), pp. 653-683.
- “Israeli History: Who is Fabricating What?” (Review of Fabricating Israeli History: The 'New Historians' by Efraim Karsh), Survival, Autumn 1997, pp. 156-166.
- (Read Efraim Karsh's response to the review)
- "Has Israel Annexed East Jerusalem?" Middle East Policy (January 1997)
- "Hegemonic Beliefs and Territorial Rights." International Journal of Intercultural Relations, Vol. 20 (1996), pp. 1-14.
- "Fundamentalism, Politicized Religion and Pietism" MESA Bulletin, 30. (1996)
- "To Build and to Be Built By: Israel and the Hidden Logic of the Iron Wall," Israel Studies, Vol. I, No. 1, 1996, pp. 196-223.
- "State-Building Failure in British Ireland and French Algeria," Berkeley Institute of International Studies, 1985.
- “Israel and the West Bank after Elon Moreh: The Mechanics of De Facto Annexation,” The Middle East Journal, Vol. 35, no. 4 (Autumn 1981) pp. 557-77.
Selected Chapters in Edited Volumes
- One-State Reality: Israel as the State that Rules the Lands and Populations Living Between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River, In Israel/Palestine: Exploring a One-State Reality (POMEPS Studies 41: July 2020)
- "Thinking Counterfactually and with Discipline" in Interpretive Quantification, J. Samuel Barkin and Laura Sjoberg, ed. (Ann Arbor: University Michigan Press, 2017) pp. 145-173.
- "Zionist Theories of Peace" in Israel and Its Palestinian Citizens, Nadim N. Rouhana, ed (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2017) pp. 39-72. (with Matthew Berkman)
- "Deploying Constructivism for the Analysis of Rare Events: How Possible is the Emergence of 'Punjabistan'?" in Constructivist Theories of Ethnic Politics, Kanchan Chandra, ed. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012) pp. 422-451.
- "Yerushalayim, al-Quds, and the Wizard of Oz: The Problem of Jerusalem after Camp David II and the Aqsa Intifada," in Jerusalem: Idea and Reality, Tamar Mayer and Suleiman A. Mourad, eds. London: Routledge, 2008. pp. 283-302.
- "The War on Terror: When the Response is the Catastrophe," in Emergency Management in Higher Education: Current Practices and Conversations, Jessica A. Hubbard, ed. Fairfax, VA: The Public Entity Risk Institute, 2008. pp. 73-98. (Read this as a conference paper presented at the Emergency Management Higher Education Conference, Emergency Management Institute, June 4-7, 2007)
- "Hegemony and the Riddle of Nationalism: The Dialectics of Political Identity in the Middle East" Ethnic Conflict and International Politics in the Middle East, Leonard Binder, ed. Gainsville, FL: University Press of Florida, 1999. pp.332-359. (Read this chapter as a working paper) (Read it as published in Logos, Summer 2002, Vol 1, #3.)
Council on Foreign Relations
Association for Israel Studies
American Political Science Association
Editorial Board, Palestine-Israel Review